Good news for the steel sector: the World Steel Association forecasts an increase in demand in 2020 by + 1.7% at global level and by + 1.1% in the EU. The data has been included in the last Short Range Outlook (SRO) published by the association, which periodically monitors world steel consumption. After expectations for 2019 improved, going from 1.3% in April to the current + 3.9%, the company forecasts a further rise in demand for 2020 and expects an increase from + 1.0%, as written in the previous report to + 1.7% as for the last update.
“The current SRO suggests that global steel demand will continue to grow in 2019, at a stronger pace than we expected given the difficult times, mainly due to China,” said Al Remeithi, president of the Worldsteel Economics Committee. “In the rest of the world, demand for steel has experienced a slowdown in 2019 due to uncertainty, commercial tensions and geopolitical issues that have weighed on investment and trade. The manufacturing industry, and in particular the automotive industry, did not performed well in many countries, however the construction sector, despite a moderate slowdown, mantained a positive momentum. It must be noted, however, that there are significant downside risks to the forecasts in the light of the current level of uncertainty “. (source Siderweb).
THE KEY ROLE OF CHINA
Forecasts for the end of the current year estimate a consumption of 1.775 billion tons of steel (+ 3.9% with respect to the previous year) and expect almost 1.806 billion tons for 2020 (+ 1.1%).
Although from an economic point of view the prospects for 2019 remain negative for most developed conutries (-0.1%), growth for next year is estimated at + 0.6%. China is expected to play a fundamental role once again and should rise by 7.8% also in 2019 after the + 7.9% seen in 2018. Production in the current year should therefore reach 900 million tons and increase further in 2020 to 909 million tons, resulting in an estimated growth of 1%.
THE SITUATION IN ITALY
Good prospects for Italy, for which performance improvements are expected in the coming years. Italy is the ninth world’s largest consumers and will see consumption settle at + 2.6% for 2019, with 26.9 million tons. In 2020 the estimate is positive, with a further growth of + 1.9% and demand that should reach around 27.5 million tons per year.